Note: this is a fictional scenario. Imagine yourself in this fictional scenario in 2035 and provide your answers to our survey from this particular perspective.
Scenario 1: „Putting Business First“
Looking back from 2035, it becomes clear that the “business first”-credo postulated by the former US-President Donald Trump to settle conflicts in the Western Balkans by boosting economic recovery has become the main economic pathway of the region in the last 15 years. Economic cooperation was significantly supported by the implementation of a regional “Mini-Schengen” agreement in 2020 and its successors, which facilitated free trade and business spill-overs between the Western Balkan economies (WB6).
Although the political disputes at national and regional level continue, most of the WB6 governments follow a “pro-business attitude”. Nowadays in 2035, the administrative burden on the business sector is low, corporate taxes are minimal, labour unions have limited impact, and digital solutions are supported by the government. Private business interests significantly influence state’s decision-making processes to their own advantage.
Testimonial from a CSO representative: “In the 2020s, bribery occurred in plain sight in the Western Balkans. Of course, we did not have oligarchic structures as in Russia, but state capture by the big companies was one of our biggest challenges to economic development. Nowadays, corruption is more hidden through political privileges. You have to understand, we are a very small population and the political and economic elite know each other well. It’s easy to pick up the phone and ask for a “favour”.”
- Bojan Malović, Head of the Civil Society Organisation “Balkaccountability”
Foreign direct investments (FDI) still come from EU and European companies and since 2025 increasingly also from India, Russia and China. Especially Serbia experienced remarkable growth rates. North Macedonia and Albania profited from the economic recovery of Greece and Italy. SMEs entered international business relations and got involved in higher-tiers of international value chains. The way forward is a selective modernisation of some economic sectors (such as energy; ICT; food; construction; healthcare). Economic modernisation and public sector innovation are supported by EU institutions as well as the European Investment Bank. Consequently, the region’s start-up scene is flourishing. Capital cities such as Belgrade, Tirana and Sarajevo have become hubs in pioneering technology. The attractive new labour market opportunities in some cities further propels domestic and increasingly also intra-regional mobility. Today, low wages and the geographical proximity to richer EU countries also pave the way for exploiting private medical tourism activities that depend strongly on personal attention.
One priority area for public and private investment is digitalisation. The education and vocational training sector reacted to the trend and trains talented youngsters in more and more courses in the areas demanded by the economy (such as ICT and engineering areas). Although a structured top-down reform of the higher education sector did not happen, some faculties (especially from private universities) start to offer tailor-made courses for companies, which also result in business-oriented R&D. All governments from the WB6 are setting-up innovation support measures via projects and infrastructures. Additionally, a regional innovation mechanism was created that successfully facilitates the advancement of tech-sectors. While private R&D experiences a remarkable growth, basic, fundamental and public research has collapsed. This continues to effect classical universities most negatively. Especially engineering-oriented universities suffer from brain drain, because their researchers increasingly move to the flourishing private high-tech sectors to pursue a career there.
While successfully supporting business development and promoting exploitation of natural resources, most of the WB6 countries have not implemented reforms in areas such as education, social policy, climate mitigation and transformation towards a green economy. Climate change and resource exploitation severely impact all economic sectors equally. Only those industries, where a clear market opportunity was available and quick wins could be attained (e.g. renewable energies; waste water/recycling industries) read the signs of the time and adapted to these challenges.
The absence of long-term investments in social and public infrastructures has led to increased tensions, especially between urban and rural regions in terms of supply of public services and labour market opportunities. Social unrest is present in several WB6, and policy makers do not offer solutions to address these issues. EU accession negotiations are therefore not progressing as foreseen.
